Times Property Holdings – A Risky Play in the South China Property Market

Times Property Holdings 1-Year ChartTimes Property Holdings Limited (01233.HK) is one of the top 50 real-estate developers in China and among the list of Fortune China 500 companies. Times Property Holdings is engaged in property development, leasing, and management in key cities of China’s Pearl River Delta. The company is focusing on the development of mid to high-end market residential properties. It has currently 45 ongoing projects in various stages spread between six cities in Guangdong Province and one project in the Hunan Province. The Hong Kong-based company was established in 1999 and is listed on the main board of HKEX since December 2013. Shares can furthermore be traded in Germany.

The Pearl River Delta is one of the most attractive metropolitan areas for real estate developers in China. During the first half of 2016, the sales volume of newly built commercial residential properties in the Guangdong Province increased by 58.4%.

Times Property Holdings will continue to focus on this region and expand its foothold in other cities with high growth potential. In the future, the company also plans to expand its business into urban development by providing community services, home offices and the operation of creative office parks. This will bring vast opportunities for the growth of enterprises.

With a staff of 4,100 employees, Times Property Holdings generated revenues of 5.7bn RMB and a profit before tax of 964m RMB during the first six months of 2016. An increase of 41% and 38% respectively compared to the same period a year ago. In 2015, revenues and profit grew by 31% and 17% respectively compared to the year before. More than 95% of the company’s revenues are attributable to the sales of properties. Times Property Holdings’ contracted sales grew by a strong 75% in the first six months of this year to 13.4bn RMB. This result should support further revenue growth over the next 1-2 years according to Moody’s. The company’s land reserves totaled around 12m sq.m.

From a low in late December Times Property Holdings’ shares gained more than 37% this year with an increasing momentum since August. Shares are currently priced at only 4 times its earnings. Valuation ratios, a dividend yield of 5% and a five-year annualized EPS growth of 42% show a very positive picture of the company. Precarious is the company’s debt profile which could cause severe downside risks when monetary policy and property market in China turns to be less favorable in the future.

AIS Rating: ★★★☆☆

 

 2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016
H1 only
 EPS (RMBcents) n/a 28 75 72 74 30
 Change 168% -4% 3% 20%
 P/E  P/E
Industry
 P/B  P/CF  Equity
Ratio
 ROE  Debt/
Equity
 Div
YLD
4 30 0.8 3.2 13% 23% 664% 5%