Japan’s Nomura Global Research expects a growth of only 5.7% for the Asian region ex-Japan in 2016. This will be the slowest pace since 1998.
Little growth is expected in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. Malaysia and Indonesia are rated neutral with an expected GDP growth of 4.0% and 5.2% respectively. Singapore’s outlook is even negative with a forecasted GDP growth of only 1.8% in 2016.
Nomura argues with the high impact of a weak global demand and a slowing down China economy in the whole region. GDP growth for China is predicted to be only 5.8% for 2016. Demographic reasons, high debt, and property prices, as well as the contrary development of interest rate in US and Asia, will have further effects on surrounding economies.
On the other hand, Nomura remains optimistic for the future development of the Indian market. Despite higher inflation and interest rates, Nomura expects the GDP to grow at 7.8% in 2016.
The table above gives a ranked overview of GDP growth in selected Asian countries.
* FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Panel, Nov 2015
